A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
